Emission perspectives of greenhouse gases

Present-day decisions, e.g. regarding the strategies of infrastructure (buildings, power plants, traffic), influence future emissions of greenhouse gases in Switzerland. Here, the short (until 2020) and medium to long (until 2030) term perspectives of Switzerland’s greenhouse gas emissions are presented. The calculations of the perspectives are based on two different methods.

Short term perspectives

The short term perspectives extrapolate Switzerland’s greenhouse gas emissions until 2020 and allow for an evaluation of the evolution with regard to the legally obligated emission reduction target for the year 2020. The short term perspectives are based on a statistical model which reproduces the observed emissions as a function of explaining variables (such as population, heating degree days, gross domestic product, etc.). Based on an extrapolation of the explaining variables until 2020, the model then calculates estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions, which can be compared to the (sectoral) emission reduction targets.

Entwicklung eines Tools zur Abschätzung der Treibhausgasemissionen (PDF, 7 MB, 31.05.2015)Statistical model to estimate the evolution of emissions until 2020 (fundamental report on short term perspectives). Ecoplan, mandated by FOEN.

Medium to long term perspectives

The medium to long term perspectives are not primarily developed to estimate greenhouse gas emissions of imminent years, but indicate the evolution under the assumption of different surrounding conditions on the medium to long term. In particular, the three scenarios with ‘existing measures’, with ‘additional measures’ and ‘without measures’, which are required under Switzerland’s United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reporting obligation, are distinguished. For this complex task, different methodologies are applied, depending on the sector.

Emissions scenarios without measures 1990-2030 (PDF, 1 MB, 04.05.2016)Modeling of CO2 emissions of the energy sector for the scenarios ‘with existing measures’ and ‘without measures’, 1990–2030. EPFL and Infras, commissioned by the FOEN.

Updated emissions scenarios without measures, 1990-2035 (PDF, 1 MB, 24.11.2017)Update of the modelling of CO2 emissions of the energy sector for the scenarios ‘with existing measures’ and ‘without measures’, 1990–2035. EPFL, commissioned by the FOEN.

Pilotstudie zum Treibstoffverbrauch und den Treibhausgasemissionen im Verkehr 1990-2050 (PDF, 1 MB, 21.08.2017)Szenarien für den Strassenverkehr, Schlussbericht. Infras, im Auftrag des BAFU (nur deutsche Version verfügbar).

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Last modification 27.11.2017

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