Published on 13 October 2026

Costs of selected climate risks in Switzerland

The project analysed the current and future costs of climate change for Switzerland. It modelled selected climate risks and their costs under various emission scenarios and examined which sectors are particularly affected. In addition, the project identified possible adaptation measures and calculated their costs.

Road workers are paving the street in temperatures exceeding 39 degrees on Entenweidstrasse; this photo was taken on June 26, 2026, in Basel. — © Keystone-Manuel Geisser

The results show how measures to adapt to climate change will reduce future damage costs and how these costs are distributed amongst the federal government, cantons, local authorities, businesses and private individuals. They also show the impact that climate change and adaptation measures have on employment and gross value added, and thus on the Swiss economy as a whole.

Inaction on climate change incurs enormous economic costs; over the course of the project, we were able to track where these costs arise and how they are interrelated, and we can now use this as a basis for arguing in favour of implementing measures.

Nana von Felten, MSc in Environmental Sciences
Climate Project Manager for the Canton of Aargau

Methodology

The project focuses on selected climate risks that are particularly relevant to Switzerland. To ensure the best possible comparability, uniform system boundaries are applied, for example with regard to the time horizon and emission scenarios.

At the same time, the climate risks under consideration differ significantly in terms of their impact mechanisms, as well as the available data and scientific findings. Quantification is therefore carried out for each climate risk using a methodology tailored to the respective context and is based on the data and studies available in each case. All assumptions and methodological decisions are documented in the final report and in the technical reports.

Climate risks

The project analyses the following impacts of climate change and climate risks:

• Increased heat stress: Adverse effects on human health, performance
  losses at work and increased demand for cooling energy
• Increasing drought: Yield losses in agriculture and water scarcity (qualitative only)
• Rising snow line: Loss of revenue in winter tourism
• Storms and hailstorms: Property damage
• Heavy rainfall: Property damage and personal injury
• Further impacts: Changes in hydropower generation and impairment of forest services (qualitative only)

Findings and results

The following results emerge from the analysis of the climate risks:

• Adverse effects on human health caused by increased heat stress:

  Increased heat stress adversely affects health and can lead to higher healthcare costs and reduced consumption. Older people, those with chronic illnesses, children and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to these health effects. Adaptation measures mitigate these effects and generate positive impetus for the economy, for example in the construction sector in relation to heat protection measures or the installation of cooling systems.

• Performance losses at work due to increased heat stress:

  Heat-related losses in labour performance lead to higher costs. Real wages and purchasing power decline, which can cause particular problems for low-income households. Adaptation measures, such as structural measures to provide summer heat protection for buildings or the installation of cooling systems, can mitigate this effect. Furthermore, these measures can provide a positive boost to certain sectors, such as the construction industry, which receives additional contracts through the implementation of such measures.

• Increase in cooling energy demand due to greater heat stress:

  As temperatures rise, the demand for cooling energy increases sharply, particularly in cities, leading to high costs for households and businesses. Structural adaptation measures for summer heat protection can significantly reduce these costs, but they may place a financial burden on low-income groups.

• Yield losses in agriculture due to increasing drought:

  Periods of drought cause significant yield losses in agriculture for the varieties currently in widespread cultivation. The negative consequences for turnover and employment spill over from agriculture to downstream sectors and households. Adaptation measures such as irrigation or the use of drought-tolerant varieties significantly reduce the damage and generate positive economic effects.

• Water scarcity due to increasing drought:

  Water availability in Switzerland will remain largely sufficient until 2060. However, extreme years will lead to localised water shortages, particularly in the Swiss Plateau and in urban areas. The sectors most affected will be industry, agriculture, tourism and households. Adaptation measures such as restricting water consumption during dry spells or constructing water retention basins will mitigate the effects.

• Loss of revenue in winter tourism due to a rising snow line:

  In ski resorts, the reliability of snow cover is declining dramatically, and the number of skiable days is falling. Low-lying ski resorts are particularly affected, as higher temperatures will mean they can no longer make artificial snow on their slopes in future. While adaptation strategies — including artificial snowmaking at higher elevations and the diversification of tourism offerings — can help reduce the damage, considerable macroeconomic losses persist, with lasting consequences for tourism-dependent regions

• Property damage and personal injury caused by heavy rainfall:

  Heavy rainfall causes personal injury and property damage, with negative economic consequences. Adaptation measures such as protective structures or the implementation of risk-based spatial planning can reduce damage and boost the construction industry. In macroeconomic terms, the private sector, households and the public sector are all faced with costs arising from the repair of property damage, losses of turnover or rising insurance premiums. With adaptation, the negative effects are significantly reduced.

• Property damage caused by storms and hailstorms:

  Storms and hailstorms result in significant property damage, with adverse consequences primarily for the agricultural sector, but also for households and businesses. This has a negative impact on employment across the economy. A balanced mix of measures – for example, comprising protective structures for buildings or cultivated land – significantly reduces storm and hail damage, whilst remaining affordable and acceptable. These adaptation measures lead to positive macroeconomic effects.

• Changes in hydropower generation due to climate change:

  Climate change is altering the flow regime and leading to seasonal shifts in hydropower generation. Heavy rainfall and increasing erosion lead to higher sedimentation in reservoirs. Adaptations such as raising turbine runners or measures to reduce sedimentation bring some positive effects, but the associated costs place a burden on households and businesses.

• Impacts of climate change on forest services:

  Climate change is affecting forest services such as timber production and the protective function of forests, resulting in high costs. Adaptation measures, such as climate-resilient tree species and protective structures, mitigate negative effects and stimulate economic activity, for example in the construction sector.

  Overall assessment and conclusions

  Semi-quantitative estimates were made of the damage and adaptation costs for a total of eight of the analysed climate risks.

Assessment of damage and adaptation costs for the climate risks analysed quantitatively under various emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Source: own illustration.

This leads to the following conclusions:

• Without consistent (global) climate action (RCP 8.5), climate change will lead to high costs, particularly in the areas of human health, cooling energy demand and winter tourism.
• Measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change significantly reduce the damage costs for all climate risks.
• Climate action remains the top priority: the greater the reduction in global emissions, the lower the expected damages.

Context

This project presents, for the first time, an analysis of the impacts of climate change in Switzerland, adaptation to these impacts, and the associated costs and economic effects. The results are based on various assumptions and simplifications. They should be regarded as rough estimates, which primarily illustrate the order of magnitude of the costs associated with climate risks. However, they help understand which impacts of climate change are relevant and how damage and costs can be reduced through targeted adaptation measures.

The study does not calculate the total costs of climate change in Switzerland but focuses on selected climate risks that are particularly relevant to Switzerland. The actual total costs are likely to be significantly higher, as other climate risks, interactions between climate risks and the additional impacts caused by so-called tipping points are not taken into account.

Cost overview for five selected risks

What are the costs of climate change and adaptation in Switzerland by 2060?

This interactive presentation provides examples of five climate risks that are particularly relevant to Switzerland, for which the impacts of climate change and the costs of damage and adaptation measures have been comprehensively quantified. It illustrates selected adaptation measures that the public sector, businesses and private households can implement, and highlights the associated costs.

Five challenges posed by climate change

Effects on the Swiss economy

What are the effects of climate change and adaptation on value added and employment in Switzerland?

Based on five climate risks for which the necessary data were available, it was possible to make initial, rough estimates of the economic impacts on Switzerland.

Macroeconomic impacts

Detailed analysis results for the selected climate risks

What impacts and costs will climate change cause in Switzerland in 2060? How can we adapt, and how much will this cost? What will the macroeconomic impacts for Switzerland be in 2060?

The results report describes the climate risks analysed and highlights the key findings, assumptions and uncertainties:

• NCCS-Impacts P5 - Die Kosten von ausgewählten Klimarisiken

  Im Auftrag des BAFU

  PDF28.18 MB7 September 2026

Detailed modelling of individual risks

The detailed results of the modelling of individual climate risks are contained in the technical reports.

• NCCS-Impacts P5 - Technische Berichte

  Im Auftrag des BAFU

  ZIP48.75 MB7 September 2026

Further information

• Links

  • National drought platform: Trockenheitsbulletin (in german)

  NCCS Impact Project: Impact cost of climate change in Switzerland

  Schweiz Tourismus: Kompass Schnee